In a town, 50% people drive a scooter, 30% a car, and 20% a truck. Accident probabilities are 0.01, 0.03, and 0.15 respectively. A driver met with an accident; the probability he was driving a scooter is:

In a town, 50% people drive a scooter, 30% a car, and 20% a truck. Accident probabilities are 0.01, 0.03, and 0.15 respectively. A driver met with an accident; the probability he was driving a scooter is:

• A. 5/44
• B. 9/44
• C. 15/44
• D. 5/22

Answer: A) 5/44

Explanation: P(Scooter|Accident) = (0.5×0.01) / [(0.5×0.01) + (0.3×0.03) + (0.2×0.15)] = 0.005 / (0.005 + 0.009 + 0.030) = 0.005 / 0.044 = 5/44.